Hi there,
while I don't know whether the new Apple TV will have HDCP
always turned on, there are a few things that I do know:
1) Apple TV is capable of using HDCP via its HDMI port (ok, you guessed that already)
2) If you connect your Apple TV via HDMI, Apple says (on
http://www.apple.com/appletv/specs.html): "(7) Requires HDMI with HDCP or component video."
3) Apple's iTunes Store Terms of Service (
http://www.apple.com/legal/itunes/us/service.html) state:
"(xv) HDMI. An HDCP connection is required in order to view movies (purchased or rented) and TV shows transmitted over HDMI"
My interpretation: If you use your Apple TV for watching movies or TV shows, and you use the HDMI port, HDCP will necessarily be enabled. You might be lucky in that some things (like Apple TV's menus, viewing photos or the like) might work without HDCP, but don't count on it. It's much easier (implementation-wise) to just switch on HDCP all the time, without programming special rules for special kinds of content into the Apple TV.
And, even if some things were to work today without HDCP - well, if Apple states "requires HDMI
with HDCP ... " on their tech specs page, there's no reason for them not to generally switch off HDCP-less operation (should it exist right now) at some random point in future via software update. (The "told-you-so" principle.)
So, before shelling out some 200-plus bucks for the Apple TV, better make sure your TV is capable of HDCP, or at least has analogue component connectors (YPrPb). (Nobody knows right now, by the way, whether all content will be offered via the YPrPb connectors, or whether there is - or will be - content which will only be made available in content-protected form via the HDMI port.)
HDCP is big on Apple's agenda, I should guess, with MacBook Air coming with HDCP chips on its mainboard (as at least one disassembly site suggests). This can only mean that more and more Apple hardware will be made HDCP-capable, meaning, in turn, that support for HDCP-less playback of high-quality media will, at least on the longer run, slowly disappear.
My $0.02, anyway. G'night.