VMware Fusion's "Split into 2 GB files" and Time Machine

2 GB is still a fairly big chunk.

One way to tell would be to test it, using the TimeTracker app, from www.charlessoft.com.
It shows most of the files saved by TM for each backup (excluding some hidden/system files, etc.).

Splitting to 2GB sounds like a workaround for people who want to store their virtual machines on a FAT filesystem (so that it can be easily shared between a Mac and Windows machine). The FAT filesystem cannot store files larger than 4GB, and it's usually safer to limit to 2GB.

Time machine looks for files that have changed, and backs them up if they have changed. For a 32GB virtual machine, you'll have sixteen 2GB files. Probably at least two or three of them will change every time you use the VM, even if you hardly do anything. So this solution will sort of work, but you'll still be eating up space pretty fast on your Time Machine volume.

I store all of my virtual machines on a sparsebundle disk image. This is a mounted filesystem that seamlessly breaks up the filesystem into many 8MB files. That level of granularity keeps my TM backups small. For example, I have three individual VMs stored on a single sparsebundle volume. They currently occupy 3012 individual 8MB "bundle" files. The last time I used those VMs, I ran software updates on all of them. A total of 118 of those 8MB files changed as a result of the updates, so the TM backup was 944MB. If they were not on a sparsebundle volume, the TM backup would have been about 24GB.

I use Parallels, but the same concept should apply to any application that creates and frequently updates very large files. Use Disk Utility to create the sparsebundle volume.