Thank you, CF.
Reading their conclusions, despite what they say about the effectiveness of scan errors to predict failure and the odds of it happening, I would still take note of them and begin to take precautions.
We find, for example, that after their first scan error, drives are 39 times more likely to fail within 60 days than drives with no such errors. First errors in reallocations, offline reallocations, and probational counts are also strongly correlated to higher failure probabilities.
And they go on to say,
Despite those strong correlations, we find that failure prediction models based on SMART parameters alone are likely to be severely limited in their prediction accuracy, given that a large fraction of our failed drives have shown no SMART error signals whatsoever.
failure rates are indeed definitely correlated to drive manufacturer, model, and age; failure rates did not correspond to drive usage except in very young and old drives (i.e. heavy data "grinding" is not a significant factor in failure); and there is less correlation between drive temperature and failure rates than might have been expected, and drives that are cooled excessively actually fail more often than those running a little hot.”
Good that that confirms our own observations, and if one wanted the name of a good HD maker there's enough of an experience pool here to draw upon. Interesting that heat and heavy use don't contribute all that much to a drives poor health, that maybe cold could be a worse factor. (My Mac seems ice cold when I go to use it in the morning).
Wish we had a better way solid way to predict drive failure it seems. But it's good that there are some fairly easy to spot symptoms, or warnings, if the drive allows us enough time to back up.
Easy in that our drives may simply disappear from the desktop (really bad news if it's the boot drive and no backup system drive), or Open and Save dialog boxes indicate the computer is having difficulty locating certain HDs you knew were there just a minute ago.
There's more but either of those would be enough for me to clone everything on that disk. And if it's the System Disk, I'd use the clone I made and transfer it back to a different internal drive in the Mac.
I wonder how SSDs will go compared to standard drives. I imagine they might go more quickly once the process starts.
Funny thing about SSD failure rates is that up front we are told they will not last as long as regular disks, and in two ways. They slow down over time and then, if you're lucky, they die altogether when they become just too slow to use anymore. Cool thing is that since they've been out, it's been too soon to see anyone report any significant speed loss yet.