There are a number of factors that affect the file size in a digital video. The amount of color changes being one, and the file compression algorithm is the biggest. Right now, there is no way to know the file size for the iPhone 4, since we can only guess at what the files sizes will be based on the 720p HD recording. I don't have a 3GS, so I cannot speak on that matter.
The last aspect that would affect how much video you can record is the amount of free space that you have left available on the iPhone. Maybe someone with a 3GS can come in here and let you know what kind of file sizes they have experienced, however that may not be a predictor for the iPhone 4.