It will NOT even matter now, in 2020, whether your old iPad can upgrade to iOS 10, or not!
These old iPad 2, 3, 4 and 1st gen iPad Mini models are nearing 8 and 9-years old, now.
The amount of older, compatible, available apps for these old iPad models has dwindled significantly since the beginning of 2020!
Getting older versions of apps for these old iPad models, initially from Apple’s iOS App Store is getting very difficult and very problematic and this issue is getting, painfully, much worse, now, in 2020!
As of the beginning of 2019, many, MANY third party app developers are all more quickly and completely permanently dropping older app support for all old 7, 8 and 9-year iPads that are running 2-3 year old and earlier iOS versions ( iOS 10 and earlier ).
Third party app developers are removing all of their older, legacy versions of their apps from Apple's App Store servers, now.
Third party app developers no longer want to support these 8 and 9-year old or older iOS devices, any longer!
Older versions of apps are, soon, going to be gone for good, now!
These old iPads are now reaching their complete end of life and support.
So finding older versions apps for older iPads, while still possible, currently, will be a very tough challenge, now, in 2020.
Old iPads that can no longer be upgraded/updated will have NO MORE APPS AVAILABLE for initial download, at all, soon, from the Apple iOS App Store, for such old iOS devices in the very near future.
Older versions of apps for these older iPads will be completely gone, at some point, in the very foreseeable future.
Old 8 and 9-year old iPads will be pretty much obsolete by the end of the 2020 year!
Again, it is what it is, today, in the year 2020!
You will never get any more older versions of popular apps for these old iPads, any longer.
The apps that these old iPads already have on them, and still work, will be the apps these iPads will be stuck with!
Basically, these old iPad models are just good for FaceTime and somewhat limited Web browsing via some other, more up to date third party Web browsers and NOT using that nearly 4-year old iOS Safari Web browser.
So, this is REALLY NOW the time to seriously consider a new or discounted, refurbished iPad from Apple or other Apple authorised resellers.
You need to truly consider a purchase of a new iPad from Apple or a discounted, refurbished iPad from Apple’s Refurbished & Clearance section of Apple’s Website or a new or refurbished iPad from an Apple authorised, third party retail or online reseller OR other trusted sources for new or used Apple products.
A lot has happened with iPad and iOS in 7-9 years and in the past 2 to 3-1/2 years since iOS 9 and 10.
As an example and compared to your older iPad model,
The cheapest, baseline 2019, 10.2 inch screen 7th gen Apple iPads have a 1/2 inch larger retina screen, newer, more powerful and nearly 2-1/2 times faster 2.3 Ghz, A10 Fusion processors, AT LEAST, 3-4 times the internal RAM, with the 2019, 7th gen iPad having 3 GBs of internal RAM, iPadOS 13 support, with much better and improved multitasking features, Apple Pencil and Apple Smart keyboard cover support and have better audio speakers and better/improved built-in cameras.
In addition, if you search online and look at various, reputable online Apple device resellers, you can usually find this 2019, 7th gen iPad at discounts of between $60 U.S.D and $100 U.S.D. depending on storage size and whether it is a WiFi ONLY model or a WiFi/cellular data model.
Sorry & Good Luck to You!
