13-inch M1 VS 16-inch i9

TL;DR M1 does not give a much better performance. Both M1 and i9 will lose support in about 5-7 years so for you the better pick would be the 16 inches i9

Now why:

Is the 16-inch a stupid investment at this point?Personally, no. The i9 core processor is very sufficient right now and in fact, it's stronger than M1 in many ways.

According to Cinebench R23, M1 top i9 in Single core only by 5% while i9 top M1 by 57. Single core performances are mostly for gaming which probably isn't the need here. On the other hand, multi-core performances are needed in almost every productivity softwares.

Now, about software update. Yes, you're right. Updates for 16in are probably going stop in about 5-7 years but same is also true for 13in M1. In fact, it is true for all mac products.

Perhaps apple WILL make a M1 16in in the near future but eve if that happened, do not feel bad.

M1 just isn't that great. It top i9 in performances by a tiny bit and it's still unsure how M1 will actually do when running real tasks. Plus, M1 is a chip designed for mac so if you need a secondary system (Bootcamp/Windows) it's probably not gonna be (completely) compatible. M1 is basically just a test for apple-disigned chips.

Now we can talk about how long do you plan to hold on your mac. For mac products, updates will stop in about 5-7 years. However, does that really matters? Most OS updates just bring minor performances improvements and UI update (Speaking of, I think the new icons for the new OS is just disgusting). I personally own a 5 yr old Macbook air and I still think it's pretty adequate. Your concern is probably about the softares support as softwares updates often does not support the old OS. I can't really give you advice on this one but you should evaluate it by yourself, do you really need the future updates?

Anyways in conclusion:

No, 16in is not a stupid investment at this point.

Probably, but I don't think it's worth sacrificing the 3 in. I'm just like you, feeling super uncomfortable looking at screen under 15in.

These are just my thoughts and you should only take them as advices. Evalutate it on your own.

The new M1 notebooks are the entry level models. Only two Thunderbolt ports, only one external display supported (important to know since you mention multiple 24" monitors, so that may seal the deal right there). Worth noting that though Apple discontinued the 2020 Intel 2-TB3 13" MBP models when they launched the M1, they kept the Intel 4-TB3 models in the lineup. The 16" model will show up at some point, with an M1x/M2/Mwhatever that will likely be stellar...but it's not likely to drop in the next month.

Meanwhile, the 16" i9 is a powerful, capable machine. I have two of them, actually (one space gray, one silver). MacOS support is a concern, though. No one knows how long Apple will continue to support Intel. When they switched to Intel from PowerPC, the first version of macOS unable to run on PowerPC came out three years after the first Intel Macs launched. But that was many years ago, and the installed user base for Intel Macs is much, much larger.

In the end, the overarching rule of thumb is that if you need a new computer, buy one. Eventually any machine is end-of-lifed.

Apple_User_One wrote:

Getting the 16-inch is a big gamble because of the hardware related issues. For the price I'd say it's not worth it. Make sure you get the warranty if you do. That's my advice.

What 'hardware related issues'? Nothing wrong with my pair of 16" MBPs...

What 'hardware related issues'? Nothing wrong with my pair of 16" MBPs...

I see you have quite the collection of machines, much more than the average person could afford. Just because it's not happening to you doesn't mean kernel panics among other issues aren't happening to others. I'm just telling him to get the warranty for peace of mind. Not everyone is rich and that machine is very expensive to repair or replace.

Getting the 16-inch is a big gamble because of the hardware related issues. For the price I'd say it's not worth it. Make sure you get the warranty if you do. That's my advice.