Hi everyone,
As promised here is an update - and it *might* be fixed. My machine has been backing up reliably now for about 24 hours without issue.
I've had a couple of chats with Apple's support team here in Europe - and first of all - lovely people, really friendly and patient. It doesn't look like we've found a root cause for the failure, but on my setup it looks like the preferences files in the Time Machine sparsebundle might have been corrupted after the update.
My 'fix' was time consuming. Be warned.
After turning off Time Machine temporarily, I opened the sparsebundle in Synology DiskStation (it appears as just another folder), deleted the three .plist files in the sparsebundle, then closed the sparsebundle.
Restarting Time Machine and triggering a Time Machine backup caused the machine to generate a new sparsebundle - this took HOURS, but since completing the first backup the machine has been backing up regularly including when asleep.
I haven't tried it, but I assume deleting the sparsebundle entirely would have the same effect - but that felt pretty drastic. After the backup was completed and verified, I could delete the old sparsebundle.
Not sure why this worked and creating a new folder on the Synology a few days ago did not, nor do I know if this is a permanent fix - but I am making backups again.
HTH.