I tried updating through the command line with
sudo softwareupdate -i -a -R
and got the following much more descriptive error:
Failed to download & prepare update: Error Domain=SUOSUErrorDomain Code=201 "Failed to personalize the software update. Please try again." UserInfo={NSLocalizedRecoverySuggestion=An error occurred while downloading the selected updates. Please check your internet connection and try again., NSLocalizedDescription=Failed to personalize the software update. Please try again., NSUnderlyingError=0x6000016a0300 {Error Domain=SUMacControllerError Code=7723 "[SUMacControllerErrorPreflightPersonalizeFailed=7723] Failed to perform PreflightPersonalize operation: [MobileSoftwareUpdateErrorDomain(MSU):MSU_ERR_PERSONALIZATION_FAILURE(2)]" UserInfo={NSLocalizedDescription=Failed to personalize the software update. Please try again., SUMacControllerErrorIndicationsMask=0, NSDebugDescription=[SUMacControllerErrorPreflightPersonalizeFailed=7723] Failed to perform PreflightPersonalize operation: [MobileSoftwareUpdateErrorDomain(MSU):MSU_ERR_PERSONALIZATION_FAILURE(2)], NSUnderlyingError=0x6000016a1110 {Error Domain=MobileSoftwareUpdateErrorDomain Code=2 "could not obtain device identity information through SFR installer" UserInfo={NSLocalizedDescription=could not obtain device identity information through SFR installer, target_update=24A348}}}}}
Plenty of into, but "could not obtain device identity information through SFR installer" seems most relevant.