I wouldn’t read this as Apple pushing you away from the iPhone 12. The iPhone 12 is still officially supported by iOS 26.
Since both setups failed around the same time and the iPhones themselves can still message Android users, a software-related relay issue is certainly possible. Apple still documents Text Message Forwarding as the supported way for a Mac or iPad to send SMS, MMS, and RCS through the iPhone.
At this point, with the settings confirmed and the forwarding toggle already refreshed, I think you’ve done the useful user-side checks. I’d report the behavior to Apple and mention that it affects two separate iPhone-to-device pairs that stopped working at roughly the same time.
If you notice whether the failed Android messages are trying to go as RCS or plain SMS, that would also be worth including.