Hi Will,
Sorry for the late reply, I've been away on a shoot. I couldn't find a solution anywhere else so a created one of my own for you.
I notice that you have a camera at the top. When you track a particle it only occurs on the birth of that particle. So the position is held in 2d or 3d space for it's entire life at the position of the emitter at that time. That's so that if you have a 3d particle and want the camera to move around it, it stays in place.
So I figured, "what if you attach the camera to the track? - of course it will happen back to front unless you use a stabilise". So I moved the Match Move to the Camera, reattached the source to the tracker and made the camera a 2d camera. I then went to the camera properties and made the rotation of x and y to be 180º.
And it works 🙂
Hope it works for you
Pi