My TM problem is somewhat different.
It appears that TM can no longer do incremental back ups.
Briefly, tried to back up to an external USB HD used by TM for years. Instead of deleting old files to make room, TM insisted on doing a full 220 GB back up and "failed" because only 130 GB was left. I deleted all the old files and TM created a new back up. Seemed OK.
Then, an hour later, after the computer sat unused, TM again said backup "failed" and it needed 220 GB.
Concidentally, or not a BackUP to iDisk also failed.
Neither had ever failed in years of use on the same computer.
3 yrd old MBP, 4 GB RAM.
Ideas?