I don't know that your conclusion is supportable, yet. We shall see.
Some things I have learned from reading about the last 40 pages in this discussion.
First some people are having battery issues. Some are not. From the discussions here, some might get the idea that most 4s users are having this problem, but then most of the people HERE are having the problem, but look at all the other topics where users don't mention poor battery performance.
One observation is that most users with a battery problem manifest one of two symptoms.
1. static (which is probably internal arcing), and heat buildup in use, and charging. Hardware problem!
2. Unexplained 'usage' out of line with time the phone is being used (not asleep) by the user. Software? What does Apple define as 'usage'?
3. Problems relating to 3G signal strength (or quality), and failure to switch to 2G when it should. This impacts battery life, and more than likely something built into the Quallcom chip. It may be possible to mitigate this by software (I hope).
4. Some people are pretty hacked off about the whole thing, and Apple isn't doing themselves any good by remaining aloof, but then that is the way Apple IS.