I think it was a problem in manufacturing. Here is why.
Few pages back an engineer spoke of how software can be altered to alleviate a hardware issue. So you would still have the underlying hardware issue. This would explain why only some phones are effected and why it is taking Apple so long. However it does not excuse the fact that Apple should of spoke out sooner.
What I think everyone here needs to understand is if it was indeed a manufacturing defect then some of the replacement phones out there would also be effected. I can come to this conclusion because the 4s is so new. I had the issue from the moment i opened the box on my original phone. This was running firmware 5.0. It has nothing to do wtih firmware version although it could potentially trigger it in a device that has bad hardware. This might be why 4.1 is fixing it for some people but not others. Depending on the tolerance of the trigger.
I had to make a scene the first time I went to the store about how it wasn't software. I won.. However I decided to be cooperative to make a point. I told the guy I will see you tomorrow... Well I did see him the next day and he was much better with me and much more respectful. I think it does matter who you get. However you guys are all paying customers and should not take no for an answer. However at the same time be polite. I told this great support center specialist on the phone "I don't mean to come accross as I am yelling but i just want you to know I am frustrated and I know it is not your fault. I need you to hear me out." Then I proceeded to tell her my frustrations. At that point they were willing to go out of there way for me. If I had another bad store experience then they told me to call back and they would take care of me. I was entitled as many replacements as it took.
It is a shame Apple is not admitting it but that asside this is by far the best phone I ever had. 4G is highly overrated as it is throttled on most networks and I would prefer the battery life I am getting with my 4S over that feature at this time. Also the networks are not mature enough yet. In fact just yesterday Verizon was having all kinds of 4G outages. I had nothing but problems on Android that were all software related and stupid.
I am mad at Apple but I think at the end of the day it sounds like they are fianlly starting to listen (at least more of hte reps). Keep calling until you et someone that hears you out.
I hope this helps. I am no expert on this problem but this is just my take on it from reading the entire thread and listening to everones situation.
This does not dismiss any of my dissappointment over the fact htat Apple can't even acknowledge... "We don't know what it is but we are actively working on this and will hopefully have answers soon"
The customer is always right and remind them of that.. This forum is going on 90 pages probably soon of poor individuals that have this problem. Saddly it is to the point where there are so many posts it is diffcult to diagnose right off the bat if this is software or hardware. However I think the consensus is becoming clear. Some of you have been unlucky with your replacements and i htink that is because Apple is having a difficult time figuring out which phones have that issue to get them out of circulation.