Last week my MBP became affected by the "too many items" bug as well. Usually around 20,000 files get backed up, but it went up to 40,000 following the recent security update.
Usually I'm backing up to a Time Capsule (gen 4), occassionally also to an USB drive.
Some observations:
• The source of this bug must be apparently on the Mac, not on the backup, because both backups are affected.
• From what I've seen so far using BackupLoupe, several thousands of those "ghost" files are symbolic links, located in /usr/share/man and similar directories, being copied over and over again for no obvious reason.
At first I thought there was a connection to the XtraFinder "hack" I've been using, because the bug has appeared around the time I have enabled several quite obscure functionalities in XtraFinder. But since the bug did NOT disappear after deinstalling XtraFinder, it's probably unrelated. Also, I've been actually using XtraFinder for many months now, without any obvious problems.
Also of note might be the following system.log entries on the day before this issue started:
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Mar 14 05:17:57 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Starting standard backup
Mar 14 05:18:01 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Attempting to mount network destination using URL: afp://[user_name]@[time_capsule_name].local/[time_capsule_name]
Mar 14 05:18:21 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Mounted network destination using URL: afp://[user_name]@[time_capsule_name].local/[time_capsule_name]
Mar 14 05:19:00 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: QUICKCHECK ONLY; FILESYSTEM CLEAN
Mar 14 05:19:04 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Disk image /Volumes/[time_capsule_name]/[computer_name].sparsebundle mounted at: /Volumes/Time Machine Backups
Mar 14 05:19:04 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Backing up to: /Volumes/Time Machine Backups/Backups.backupdb
Mar 14 05:22:41 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: No pre-backup thinning needed: 6.75 GB requested (including padding), 580.03 GB available
Mar 14 05:37:41 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-8084) SrcErr:YES Copying /Users/[user_name]/Music/iTunes/iTunes Musikarchiv/Temp File.tmp to (null)
Mar 14 05:58:05 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Copied 19562 files (3.7 GB) from volume [computer_name]vice.
Mar 14 05:58:50 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: No pre-backup thinning needed: 2.46 GB requested (including padding), 579.14 GB available
Mar 14 06:00:46 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Copied 1785 files (50.9 MB) from volume [computer_name]vice.
Mar 14 06:02:11 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Starting post-backup thinning
Mar 14 11:25:11 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error -36 deleting backup: /Volumes/Time Machine Backups/Backups.backupdb/[computer_name]/2013-02-12-050300
Mar 14 11:25:11 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: No post-back up thinning needed: no expired backups exist
Mar 14 11:25:11 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error writing to backup log. NSFileHandleOperationException:*** -[NSConcreteFileHandle writeData:]: Device not configured
Mar 14 11:25:11 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error writing to backup log. NSFileHandleOperationException:*** -[NSConcreteFileHandle writeData:]: Device not configured
Mar 14 11:25:11 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error writing to backup log. NSFileHandleOperationException:*** -[NSConcreteFileHandle writeData:]: Device not configured
Mar 14 11:25:11 [computer_name] mds[42]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/677E0AD4-982A-4D9B-82D6-F8037A9D0A07)(E rror) IndexGeneral in fd_pwrite:pwrite(/Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/677E0AD4-982A-4D9B-82D6-F8037A9D0A07/.s tore.db, o:5759000, s:16384) err:6
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] fseventsd[47]: disk logger: failed to open output file /Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.fseventsd/63657336facd1c9e (Device not configured). mount point /Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.fseventsd
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] mds[42]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/677E0AD4-982A-4D9B-82D6-F8037A9D0A07)(E rror) IndexSDB in db_flush_datastore:/Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/677E0AD4-982A-4D9B-82D6-F8037A9D0A07/st ore.db : db_sync_datastore: !WARNING! prior write-errors invalidate sync.
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] mds[42]: (/Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.Spotlight-V100/Store-V1/Stores/677E0AD4-982A-4D9B-82D6-F8037A9D0A07)(E rror) IndexCI in _ContentIndexSyncIndexBulk:preSync error:22 6
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Stopping backupd to allow ejection of backup destination disk!
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 2
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 3
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 4
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 5
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 6
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 7
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 8
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 9
Mar 14 11:25:12 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 10
[etc up to 999…]
Mar 14 11:25:13 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Error: (-36) Creating directory [computer_name] 999
Mar 14 11:25:13 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Couldn't create backup directory for computer name [computer_name]
Mar 14 11:25:14 [computer_name] com.apple.backupd[7539]: Backup completed successfully.
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Oddly though, this "partially unsuccessful" backup was still followed by a couple of totally normal backups later that day, with only a few hundreds up to few thousands items being copied. The actual issue began on the next day.
I've tried the usual voodoo like fsck & permission repair & deep system cache cleanup via Applejack, TM reset etc., to no avail so far.