I am also in a similar situation, although think I may have diagnosed the situation a little more.
I have an iPhone 4S, iPhone 3GS, and 2x iPod touch 4th Gen all running iOS 5.0.1. I also have an iMac running 10.7.3 and all latest software, MacBook running 10.6.8, Time Capsule and a Netgear router provided by my UK ISP Sky Broadband. I also have an Apple TV on 4.4.4 than needs updating to 5.0.
When attempting a software update on an iOS device itself (Over-The-Air updates) on my home network I cannot connect to the server, and get an error. Switching my iPhone 4S to 3G allowed me to find the 5.1 update, but not download it as it requires WiFi. Apple TV hangs on estimating time for download (I think).
I have also attempted to download the actual ipsw file from Apple Servers using links readily available on the net (Google 'felixbruns'). I get the grey 'Safari could not connect to the server' style message. At one stage I connected to the Netgear router via WiFi rather than through the Time Capsule, and was able to connect to the direct link (although I paused it to try on iPhone). I have never since been able to connect to this direct link via any method.
While in the supermarket today I was able to connect to their free public WiFi and update my iPhone 4S, slowly but successfully.
I have reset the Netgear router back to factory settings, along with the Time Capsule, and still cannot connect through either. I'm beginning to be paranoid that it's my ISP blocking the site, although that seems highly unlikely??
I have never had such an issue with software updates in the past 5+ years! This really confuses me, as I'm no novice Mac user...