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Advice on my business plan?

I installed iBooks Author and am now considering business ideas.


I have never authored a book before. I am an expert Javascripter and have a MacBook Air but am relatively new to Dashcode.


I have used an iPad, all told, about 20 minutes.


IIRC Apple's cut is 50%. Which means if I set my price let's just say at $.99 my cut is $.495. If I average 100 sales a day, that's only $50 profit/day or $18,250/year.


100 sales/day for a year seems naively high. But I want to know the potential upside, so $18,250/year is what I estimate my upper limit to be.


This is assuming I can create a nice book. I was thinking of doing a children's story because my son is 2, and if I owned an iPad I would certainly buy from the iBooks children's category. The iBooks Author controls are familiar looking and since I know programming I have some ideas around e.g. html5 storage.


Forget content for now. How much profit is within reach, at what confidence level? At this point, given what little I know, I would have to say I have about 5% confidence that I could make at least $18,250/year.


I am intentionally not considering the multiplying effects that are possible here. If I were to produce several books, these could potentially each earn the same amount estimated above, and I could create a little iBooks authoring factory in my home. The buzzkill is that I am also multiplying my assumptions.


This is to say nothing of my costs. I have to buy an ISBN, spend time designing and authoring content at the computer, purchase art, probably pay Apple a hidden fee, and (need I mention) the opportunity cost of not working on other ideas.


How are these numbers coming out better for you guys? Where is my early, rough business plan going askew?


"It's all about great idea, less execution." - David Heinemeier Hannson

Posted on Apr 8, 2012 1:23 PM

Reply
46 replies

Apr 9, 2012 8:21 AM in response to Sputnik Slim

I love how everyone assumes I couldn't possibly compose a best-seller on this somewhat revolutionary new platform. Go read The Master Switch. It is not the case -- in my humble opinion -- that the top long term sellers that will come out of iBooks Author will be of a style any of us is used to. Many talents must come together in one well curated experience. No one here is positive their plan will work. The Apple review board is notoriously slow from what I have read, so it's a crap shoot. As one odds maker to all of you, I'm just thinking out loud. Everyone here seems to positively know that I am either too green or too untalented to make it. Great, I can take that, though given you know nothing about me I'm impressed at the strength of your convictions. You can call me a troll, but being a troll is someone who is looking for a fight: I'm not that guy, I'm the guy looking to save a little time on research of a potential business idea, posting his thoughts, and getting in return some hopefully helpful answers. And you guys have been great at doing that for me. I appreciate all your help. The comment about whether I was a good father was a little ennerving, but what can you do? If I were a better writer I would have written something more appropriate up top. I am a sorry excuse for a writer, I know, and I'm sure "Children's Books" is a much harder category than I realize.


I am a former Accenture consultant. I studied engineering. I am not an author. And yet, I've read a lot of books and am good at planning and breaking things down.


I have an idea for a children's book that would not require much work. I'm unfortunately running short on time this morning, otherwise I would share it here to get your feedback. Feel free to PM me (if that's possible on this forum) if you want to talk more. I'm afraid I stepped on some entrenched toes earlier up in my thread, I didn't mean to and if I was impolite I apologize.

Apr 9, 2012 9:16 AM in response to storebot

"...so it's a crap shoot..."


Only if you submit crap. Submit a great story, properly written with compelling illustrations and utilizing the interactive features of IBA and your book will not be considered crap. You do need to learn how to write or have a professional writer do it for you. The same goes for the illustrations.



"...the comment on ...a good father was a little unnerving..."


If that is what you got out of my post, you have even further to go than previously thought.

Apr 22, 2012 7:02 AM in response to storebot

I'm a children's book author of 20 something years, I've written and illustrated over 250 books and sold 20 million+ books worldwide in amny languages.


If I had a dollar for everyone who'd told me thay's got an idea for a children's book, I'd not be bothering with ibooks!


You can fiddle with your spreadsheets all day long and work out any kind of business plan you like, but with out "content" you are stuffed. even if you have a great idea, you then have to write it. This may be a procedure you can break down, in fact that's the way I teac it, but writing for children is not the same as writing for javascript.


Once you have spent time and written your story and tested it and revised and edited and re-edited until it shines like a diamond, then you can think about illustrations. quality illustration are going to cost you $5k - $20k then you can put the book together. I'm currently up to 2+ week waiting for approval at iBooks store, so add that in.


Now you need to go tell the world about your book. Have you got a website? A profile as an author? a marketing plan? the list goes on and on.


I can assure you that even in the heyday of children's paper publishing, most children's authors were earning below the minimum wage ffom their writing. Don't be bedazzled by J.K.Rowling. Harry Potter is not what children's publishing is about that was a fluke and a phenomenom.


And please don't think you can sell any old rubbish to kids - they are the most discerning market of all.


<Edited by Host>

Apr 22, 2012 6:50 AM in response to shoobeedoo

Hi,


Just wanted to get your advice. We are currently in discussion with an established children book publisher in publishing their books as iBooks. So we have the content and illustratons, etc, but we need to make sure that iBookstore is able to support our effort if we are going to licensed content, redo the works, etc.


In your experience in iBookstore, are you able to transfer your success so far in children books publishing in iBookstore? We experiment with a few books and the result is quite disappointing, so I was wondering whether it is just us or we don't have many readers using iBookstore.


Thanks for any advices.

Apr 22, 2012 7:10 AM in response to thye chean

It's really early days. I'm putting a lot of faith into it but not yet a lot of marketing - I'm waiting for my second book to go live - which is taking forever!)


Apple are just a selling agent. You are the publisher and it is up to you to market and sell. That is not easy and is why most authors have publishers.


just answering threads like this is part of the marketing mix - but then, having taken the time to answer with quality experience and information, the "Host" (don't know if that's Apple discussions or the originator of this thread) has stripped out my links to the iBook store. which makes it all a bit of a waste of time.


you can see my playlist about making iBooks on YouTube here (see if it gets stripped out too 🙂)


http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL51EEEE0AE727C36B

Apr 22, 2012 6:18 PM in response to shoobeedoo

20 million is a lot of children's books. I'm hoping to just sell a million or two with our first IBA title. My question is, if you are having trouble getting your books into the iBookstore, why would you post a youtube video titled "Why iBooks Will Fail" and then post links to it here?


I mean, what if someone in the review dept happens across your video following the intentional path of breadcrumbs you have laid out before us here? Will they say, "Hey, let's put this guy at the head of the line!" or might they say something else? Just trying to figure out your reasoning.

Apr 22, 2012 6:38 PM in response to Sputnik Slim

youtube video titled "Why iBooks Will Fail"

I just watched that video. I find myself disagreeing with much of it.


True, the submission process is flawed and slow. But I don't see how that equates to censorship and I find myself unable to make that link. Reviewing books for quality is not censoring, and I have not seen a single report here on the forum to indicate that censorship is actually taking place.


Besides, there are many legitimate reasons why Apple would want to review content before allowing it into the bookstore. If I were a distributor, I would also reserve the right to refuse distribution to a book that I consider inappropriate. There are many possible reasons, such as poor quality (spelling, grammar, layout, etc.) as well as politically or racially offensive material (among others).


The problem isn't that Apple insist on review, in my opinion. The problem is that the submission and review process are slow and insufficiently documented, and that the trouble ticketing system is less than helpful in pointing publishers at the nature of a problem when one is found.


Michi.

Apr 23, 2012 2:10 AM in response to MichiHenning

I would also reserve the right to refuse distribution to a book that I consider inappropriate. There are many possible reasons, such as poor quality (spelling, grammar, layout, etc.) as well as politically or racially offensive material (among others).

So you reserve the right to censor material in you shop. Why should you decide on how I spell things or whatmy house grammar style should be? Huckelberry Finn is racially offensive to some - does that get approved? Who approves and why? we should know these things.


Apple are not the publisher - they are the distributor. A Christian or Islamic bookshop put that title over the door so we all know what to expect inside. Ipad should be a free platform for content. I have no problem with checjking for bugs and viruses to keep the walled garden safe, but if we are going to have a walled garden of opinion too, then I think we should be told what to expect insie that garden.


My main gripe in the video is exactly that

The problem is that the submission and review process are slow and insufficiently documented, and that the trouble ticketing system is less than helpful in pointing publishers at the nature of a problem when one is found.

and that is why publishers will get bored - go somewhere else and let iBooks rot on the vine as Mac Os did in the 90's. Kindle will be just as good very soon and you can get your book earning in under three hours. How can I write iBook material that is time sensitive when I don't know if it will be published in time because a reviewer, who works for a software company, who only really care about syntax, decides I spelt something rong.


I love the iPad and I want iBooks to succeed, but this is not the way to ensure a rosy future.

Apr 23, 2012 2:18 AM in response to Sputnik Slim

You are hoping to sell a million! Be pleased if you sell 10,000.


Do you think I should be scared of the reviewing process? Would Apple be so petty to play games with their content providers - the people who create the content that will make iBooks a success? If Apple are prepared to put my submission back because I think they are way too slow and they can't take criticism from little me in my shed in the garden, then my prediction will come true. Apple won't deserve to win the eBooks game and iPad will wither away as "couldn't care less," Kindle wins the war.


I've been waiting over two weeks for approval now. I should be getting appologies from Apple and explanations of what is going wrong with their process.


I'm a die hard Apple fan starting to think maybe my faith is not worth hanging on to.

Apr 23, 2012 2:37 AM in response to shoobeedoo

shoobeedoo wrote:


I would also reserve the right to refuse distribution to a book that I consider inappropriate. There are many possible reasons, such as poor quality (spelling, grammar, layout, etc.) as well as politically or racially offensive material (among others).

So you reserve the right to censor material in you shop. Why should you decide on how I spell things or whatmy house grammar style should be? Huckelberry Finn is racially offensive to some - does that get approved? Who approves and why? we should know these things.

As far as I know, refusing to distribute a title is not censorship. Censorship would be if, as a distributor, I altered or selectively removed parts of the material that was passed to me for submission.


Distribution companies are well within their rights to refuse to distribute a particular item, and I don't believe they even owe anyone a reason for the refusal. The only case I can think of where such refusal might be illegal is if it were to be caught under common law, such as antidiscrimination or antitrust legislation.


As a distributor, I have the right to refuse to distribute something I deem inappropriate. For example, if I am a distributor of electrical appliances and I'm approached by a company that produces (in my opinion) inferior electrical appliances, I'm at liberty to say "thanks, but I'm not interested in distributing your products."


Similarly, as a book store owner, I'm at liberty to choose not to publish titles that I deem inappropriate to the nature of my business. For example, there are plenty of book stores that do not sell novels, but exclusively specialize on particular lines, such as technical manuals. And, even then, these book stores are perfectly within their rights to refuse stocking an item that they deem inappropriate, such as a book with poor-quality binding or inaccurate information.


Apple's slow review process is not censorship, as far as I can see.



Apple are not the publisher - they are the distributor. A Christian or Islamic bookshop put that title over the door so we all know what to expect inside. Ipad should be a free platform for content. I have no problem with checjking for bugs and viruses to keep the walled garden safe, but if we are going to have a walled garden of opinion too, then I think we should be told what to expect insie that garden.

I too believe that a level playing field is desirable, and I am generally opposed to censorship. However, I do not see how what Apple is doing could be construed as censorship.


I strongly agree with you that it would be good to have more information on the conditions for rejection/approval. The currently available information from Apple is not detailed enough, IMO. More detailed information would make it easier for authors/publishers to avoid the kinds of problems that lead to rejection, and it would streamly the slow process.



My main gripe in the video is exactly that

The problem is that the submission and review process are slow and insufficiently documented, and that the trouble ticketing system is less than helpful in pointing publishers at the nature of a problem when one is found.

and that is why publishers will get bored - go somewhere else and let iBooks rot on the vine as Mac Os did in the 90's. Kindle will be just as good very soon and you can get your book earning in under three hours. How can I write iBook material that is time sensitive when I don't know if it will be published in time because a reviewer, who works for a software company, who only really care about syntax, decides I spelt something rong.

These are all good points, especially the very large time discrepancy between the Apple and the Amazon publishing process. I expect that Apple will improve the process if enough people complain. Or alternatively, if Apple doesn't improve the process, authors may vote with their feet and, as you say, the iBookstore experiment may turn out to be an "also-ran."


I love the iPad and I want iBooks to succeed, but this is not the way to ensure a rosy future.

I agree that the current process needs a lot of work. But I think it's too early to predict the failure of Apple's approach. The entire eBook thing is very new, and we are roughly at the stage where the web was in 1999. IMO, it'll take another five to ten years for this market and the technology to stabilize to the point where authors, publishers, and distributors have worked out a model that works.


For Apple, the current model seems to be "sell as many iPads as possible on the strength of the iBookstore." They may just succeed at that. Apple became the world's largest music distributor, and they may become the world's largest distributor of eBooks, too. Time will tell.


Michi.

Advice on my business plan?

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