Advice on my business plan?

I am not trying to be offensive, but if you want my brutally honest answer, it's this:

1) This isn't the place to get business plan advice, anymore than going to your favorite sports web site is the place to get health advice. Talk to experts who know about running a business, face to face.

2) You don't have a business plan; you have some very unifinished numbers you've thrown together, and what seems like a very iffy assumption on your part, as to how qualified you are to author a successful children's book and market it. You are definitely "multiplying assumptions" as well...

My advice to you is to consider whether you're getting ahead of yourself, and if so, you should really take a step or two back and spend some time looking at what you are uniquely qualified to write about, if anything. I say "if anything" not because it's not possible but because most people (even those who are good at what they do or who are really interested in some topic) are not qualified to write a book. That is partly for lack of writing background, and partly because for popular topics like JS programming (free PDFs and how-to sites all over the place) and parenting / children's books (endless stacks at the bookstore), you have to have A LOT to share that isn't widely and freely available already.

If every person who was really good at JavaScript or who had a 2 year old, decided they should write a book about either one, the world would end up filled with disappointed JavaScript programmers and parents. 😉

If you decide there IS something you are uniquely qualified to write about, I advise you to start small. Build a web site and start publishing short form articles, then get some published on third party sites also. As you gain popularity and expertise, THEN think about writing a book. That way, if you decide it's the right idea and the money equations work, you'll have a platform you've already built to market the book. Good luck.

storebot wrote:

IIRC Apple's cut is 50%.

No, 30%

storebot wrote:

Now that we are not talking about content anymore we can focus on imagining the best-case profit scenario. I am a no-name author and I have done no promotion/marketing. What is my maximum conceivable profit, assuming prices of $1, $2, $10?

I'm not sure that's a sensible question, because the answer is "many millions", regardless of the price of your book. If you make the NY Times bestseller list, it'll be many millions indeed…

We know essentially nothing about your book, other than it's going to be a children's book. It's not possible from this to predict sales figures, so your profit could be anything, from zero to millions.

Michi.

Storebot - Your propfit idea is perfect but inflated. You need to divide by 100 and find another way to feed your child. Good luck. - Fabe

storebot wrote:

The NY Times bestseller list is for books made from trees.

There are separate NY Times bestseller lists for fiction and nonfiction e-books.

It is not possible to estimate how much profit the top no-name no-marketing authors in iBooks might generate?

I don't think you will find any publicly available sales data for the iBookstore, at least not for specific titles. You could try contacting the authors of the books in the top charts to find out.

Michi.

storebot wrote:

By arguing this point with me you're implicitly claiming that iBooks sales alone account for some no-name no-marketing authors on that list. I don't think that's been established.

I don't recall making any such claim, explicitly or implicitly. I stated that, if you make the NY Times Bestseller List, you are likely to make millions, no more, no less.

Michi.

storebot wrote:

Forget content.

That doesn't seem realistic to me. Phase one of the plan should probably be to offer your book for free to see if anyone at all downloads it. If they do, you will be a little less "no-name" and can perhaps make some more rational projections about sales at various prices.

It is interesting watching your reactions...

I can almost see the rationalizations materialize as you re-spin the questions, hoping for the answers you want. The truth here is you don't want most of the answers you're being given.

You saying "forget content", makes no sense because without a very specific idea of the content you want to generate and the market for it, there is no plan. Just knowing the profit cuts and how many units it takes to make $X is not a plan of any sort. It's just a calculation. You don't need us for that; just hit the Dashboard key and use your calculator.

As for speaking for everyone, no I can't. It's entirely possible Warren Buffet and Jack Welsh peruse this forum and are minutes away from giving you awesome business plan advice. But what I am saying is common sense: relying on an internet forum filled with people you know nothing about, to get business advice ("is this good / bad, smart / not smart"), is unwise. And whether you recognize it or not, business advice from a small business expert is what you need before deciding to pursue your book. Again, good luck.

BTW I am a small business owner and published author (Wiley and others) so take that FWIW.

Stop feeding the troll everyone. It's not productive.

I think you might make the same projections, to calculate how bad 1st time authors of children's books can be, as a starting place for your business model. How many children's books have you written? Have you ever had a book get past the readers at a traditional publishing house? A book published?

Just because you downloaded IBA and you follow the instructions, and complete an eBook .... does not guarantee placement in iBookstore. If your book is crap, it won't get in and all the projections on sales will mean nothing.

It is demeaning to children's book authors (and Apple IBA reviewers) here to put forth that all that is needed for success in selling children's books is a business model, a software download, and sales projections.

FWIW, having a two year old is one of the worst reasons to say you are qualified as it will result in a vanity book that will only be viewed by your immediate family "Oh look, your brother Ivan has quit his job delivering hamburger buns and become an author. He has written a book and has sales projections!"

I just had a friend give me a neatly typed children's story that had taken him a year to complete. My advice was; great story, now go learn to write for children.

I offer you that same advice without the 'great story' part.