Hello dcjn
sorry but we went deeper in the analysis than just looking at extimated time.
When having the problem I left backup well above overnight...
For sure extimate time (not anymore available in ML) is less than linear because count on file number and not size of backup, so it is completely misleading. Also count that speed of backup in MB is much higher for large file than smaller one because of directory structure writing process so correct gauging/extimation duration is very difficult for MacOS as well as Windows.
As reported in previous post, for instance I went tracing the Network and seeing that all pending IO were completed and then network was almost silent (except some AFP control messages) for approx 3min and 20 seconds before a burst which size was variable (even few KB for small file) and the behavious stay consisten for 6 hours before I stopped the test.
I had impression that TCP stack was blocking communications, but I'm not so sure now, I'm more toward deadlocks between filesystems activities like Spotlight indexing or file permission and TM process itself.
regards, Tiziano