@lauhub "sudo tmdiagnose" didn't work for me either in the long-run... what worked was, as you mentioned in your other post: unload Spotlight at boot, reboot, then run TM...let it complete... then reload Spotlight at boot, and reboot.
I used this link:
http://osxdaily.com/2011/12/10/disable-or-enable-spotlight-in-mac-os-x-lion/
This Terminal command to unload Spotlight at boot:
sudo launchctl unload -w /System/Library/LaunchDaemons/com.apple.metadata.mds.plist
(all on one line)
[restart; run TM until it completes]
This Terminal command to reload Sportlight at boot after TM completest:
sudo launchctl load -w /System/Library/LaunchDaemons/com.apple.metadata.mds.plist
(all on one line)
[restart; try TM again]
@TStam You're right, after getting Time Machine or Time Capsule going, there's additional shenanigans that can happen
Quickly I'll suggest the program TimeMachineEditor: it still works under Mountain Lion and lets you schedule your Time Machine backup to happen once or twice a day...Any schedule you'd like. Now TM may still RUN for awhile once it starts, but at least it won't seem like it's going all the time (you must schedule it for a time when your computer (and backup resource) is awake...or use Energy Saver system preference to schedule a computer wake-up)
I've struggled with 4 different clients' Time Capsules (for the first backup, you should use a highspeed Cat5e or Cat6 cable to back up directly to Time Capsule from your computer, where possible). Occasionally the "Identity of the Backup" will fail and the whole thing will need to be redone. Sometimes I've had Time Machines run constantly, for days, to local USB drives. And sometimes it just works
Most of my experiences were under Snow Leopard and I had hoped things would be resolved for Lion and Mountain Lion. So thank you for the feedback that there are still shenanigans. Apple would probably recommend making sure your Time Capsule firmware is up to date... and probably erase/format the whole thing and redo it. Sometimes this just isn't practical but sometimes it really does help. YMMV. (I was warned by a genius bar once that the constant rebacking up and reindexing was normal for the first few days... maybe I could accept that better if the sparsebundle didn't go belly up every 3-6 months)
All-in-all I do like Time Machines (and Mountain Lion's ability to TM to multiple drives) as a theoretically fool-proof backup method for the masses.
However, I always install a secondary backup on client computers. For a long while I preferred a program called Chronosync (not free) which wakes the computer to backup, verifies the data it copies, and sends you emails if it fails.... but I only used it to back up the User folder and setting it up optimally and scheduling it is not a one-click process. Still, a very well-done program!
Someone else mentioned Carbon Copy Cloner and this is a fantastic program (used to be free but I don't think any longer). It can also be scheduled, wake your computer, alert you via email, and you can set it to make a bootable clone of your whole computer or clone to a sparsebundle diskimage. Having this kind of backup means you can directly restore the exact state of your computer (at least since last clone) to a functioning drive.
Finally, some people supplement with an "offsite" backup option like CrashPlan but I haven't tried it yet myself. I don't see the cloudy backups as reliable or secure enough to be a primary backup but I like the idea, especially for fire, lightning, and theft.