I am having a similar problem on my ipad2. It says I have 5.0 GB storage, with 1.6 GB available. I have deleted almost everything that needs to be backed up (under manage storage) and it still shows that it needs 3.3 GB to back up my ipad. I have turned off so much that it says that the next back up will only be 111mb, but it still tells me that I only have 1.6GB available. (It never changes the "back up size" from 3.3 GB, even though below it says the next back up size is 111mb. If it takes 3.3GB to back up the processing system or something then they need to give us more than 5gb free!
Is there somewhere else I can go and delete stuff from the icloud? I tried icloud.com, but that doesn't seem to do it. I can only assume that it means that there is stuff already there and it won't overwrite it or something....
Karen