How likely to fail is my 2011 iMac hard drive that's included in the recall?

They wouldn't be recalling it if there wasn't a substantial risk - it's a *very* expensive exercise, but the drive has know problems

They will back up and restore the drive contents as part of the service. You would be wise to do your own backup first, before you take it in. No point in taking any risks at all.

You may not be happy about it, but you'll be a lot less happy if the drive fails and you lose your iMac

Take it in. Get it done.

As nick101 said, you'll be a lot less happy if your drive fails and you lose data. I do have to say that I don't think that transferring your info is part of the service. I looked at Apple's website and they say that YOU should back up your information before you bring it in for service. Anytime I have been at the Genius Bar you must sign the paper work that states that YOU are responsible for backing up your information. Apple is not responsible for data lost as a result of component failure or replacement.

If you are not doing regular backups of your data already, you are fllirting with disaster.

Agreed - Apple or their AASP's won't do the back-up for you. I had my drive changed this week and they specifically checked that I had copied my data (I keep multiple back-ups so no problem).

Make a back-up first - preferably more than one 😉

See https://discussions.apple.com/thread/4449562?start=0&tstart=0 for more on backing up and other items.

It is 100% likely to fail, eventually, just as all mechanical devices will. You should maintain backups whether or not a recall were in effect.

As long as you do, there is no rush, but if there is a time limit on the recall be sure to do it before then.

John Galt wrote:

As long as you do [routinely backup], there is no rush, but if there is a time limit on the recall be sure to do it before then.

Apple says:

Apple will replace affected 1TB Seagate hard drives, free of charge, for three years from your iMac’s original date of purchase or until April 12, 2013, whichever provides longer coverage for you.

Since I bought mine on 4 Apr 10, it's good until 12 Apr 13.

If you restore from the backup to the replacement HD, it will be as if nothing happened.

Never bring a Mac anywhere near a Genius Bar without having backed up its HD.