UPDATE
I tested out some different multi-monitor configurations, and have at least found a partial solution.
Scenario 1: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA + NEC 19" DVI - fails, kernel_task out of control
Scenario 2: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA + NEC 19" VGA - fails, kernel_task out of control
Scenario 3: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA + NEC 19" #2 (different unit of identical monitor, as I have 2 of them) DVI - fails, kernel_task out of control
Scenario 4: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA + NEC 19" #2 VGA - fails, kernel_task out of control
Scenario 5: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA + Acer 23" DVI - fails, kernel_task out of control
Scenario 6: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA + Acer 23" VGA - fails, kernel_task out of control
Scenario 7: MBPr + Asus 23" VGA - success, kernel_task near 0% CPU usage
Scenario 8: MBPr + NEC 19" #2" VGA - success, kernel_task near 0% CPU usage
As you can see, the problem appears to be simultaneously using 3 monitors. It is fine with just 2.
Very frustrating since the NVIDIA GeForce GT 650M 1024 MB graphics card is quite good. But one of the following may be happening with 3 monitors:
a) the GPU can heat up dramatically, requiring kernel_task to run a fake process (like System Idle Process in Windows) to prevent the CPU from overheating (this does not make sense)
b) the GPU requires a lot more resources, requiring kernel_task to run a sub-task that helps the third monitor show video (this kind of makes sense, but the fact that this only happens in the afternoon is unexplained)
c) above some level of system resource use, a critical point is reached and kernel_task goes crazy (pretty hard to diagnose this one...)
d) some process happens to be running in the background, and in combination with the third monitor being present, it causes kernel_task to go crazy (again, hard to diagnose -- and I typically have the same stuff open all the time. I even went into Windows [running under Parallels] to make sure that no processes such as hard drive defragmentation or indexing ever run)
BTW, if kernel_task IS going crazy, and I shut down and restart, kernel_task will again spike within minutes of startup -- usually, but not always, even if I have no apps loaded (other than the system processes and menubar crap that always runs, but that leaves almost no memory footprint or CPU usage).
So, this is easy to replicate, in the sense that it happens consistently. But it is very, very hard to isolate the cause. I hope Apple can figure this out. I hate having to drop back to 2 monitors every afternoon. Ridiculous.