Q: How much iPad memory do I need?

in short - yes.  Whethyer you intend to or not, you will run thru 16 G in a heartbeat.  And you cannot add memory later.  Almost every day we see questions here from folks asking how to get more.  and there is no good answer.  The extra bucks, spread over the expected life of the device end up smaller than you think. 

The general rule is buy all you can afford. 

16GB vs 32GB vs 64GB: Which new iPad storage capacity should you get?

http://www.imore.com/2012/03/08/16gb-32gb-64gb-ipad-capacity/

How much content will fit on my iPod or iPhone?

http://support.apple.com/kb/HT1867

How Much iPad Memory Do You Need?

http://ipad.about.com/od/iPad-Tutorials/a/How-Much-iPad-Memory-Do-You-Need.htm

You might consider getting a refurbished iPad for less than the regular retail price. Then you could get a 32GB.

Buy a Refurbished iPad? The What, When, Why and How

http://www.maciverse.com/refurbished-ipad.html

Has new screen, back and battery, and 1-year warranty.

Refurbished iPads from Apple

http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/specialdeals/ipad

 Cheers, Tom

If you can afford the 32, go for it.

I have a 16 (which is really 13 and change after the operating system takes up its space) and I have a few hundred documents, few dozen songs, couple of movies and few dozen apps and I have 2-3 gig free.

I've managed on a 16 for almost 3 years, but there are times when I wish I had a bit more room, then I could more easily data hoard. As it is I depend on my iPod, which is a 32, to pick up the slack.