Hi,
An entry in the "To" spot that goes red can mean several things depending where else it occurs.
If it is just one Contact it could mean they are not Registered with iMessages (which is the alert message that shows up)
That could be an iPhone that is not Registered (or has become de-registered).
It could be an Apple ID that is not registered for iMessages.
(Obviously with those last two it does depend on whether an iPhone Number or Apple ID is the "To" ID)
It could mean as you suggest that it is neither an iPhone Number or an Apple ID and if such a number it could be an non iPhone mobile phone.
For iOS 8 and Yosemite users and above on both iPhone and Macs can do Text Forwarding for the SMS linking.
Once this has been set up the Contact will not go "red".
This Thread is in Mavericks so much of this does not apply to the people that Started or joined the Thread near the beginning.
Lastly, All the Contacts can go red as you try them.
In this case this generally means the iMessages account is not logged in to the Server.
From the OS X 10.8.2 update this could be because the Serial number is not on the Logic board after a replacement.
Later versions of the OS seem to develop this issue almost randomly when it seems the Apple ID gets "blocked" at the iMessages server.
This continues even in EL Capitan when the trigger seems to be Upgrading to El Capitan or updating to OS X 10.11.3
Later parts of this Thread deal with this issue of the iMessages Account not being logged in (either fully or partially).
Our best guess is that this is an over zealous Security feature that Apple still have not worked out how it gets triggered.

7:59 pm Wednesday; March 2, 2016
iMac 2.5Ghz i5 2011 (Mavericks 10.9)
G4/1GhzDual MDD (Leopard 10.5.8)
MacBookPro 2Gb (Snow Leopard 10.6.8)
Mac OS X (10.6.8),
Couple of iPhones and an iPad