It's sounding to me at this point that the biggest backlog is on 38mm SG Sport w/ Black Band. I ordered at 12:13am, confirmation at 12:16am on 4/10, and was given a 4-6 week shipping window w/ 5/13-5/27 delivery date. I've seen zero movement on it since, my account hasn't been charged, etc.
I'm inclined to think, overall, that Apple has kinda botched this release, with releasing stock to third-party stores (at least one store per launch country) while the preorders are left waiting for theirs to be shipped.
They might have been able to avoid bad customer sentiment if they hadn't touted the 4/24 "availability' date so much before finally backing off on that once they realized they wouldn't be able to meet it.
I still maintain that there shouldn't be any in-store stock anywhere until all the online preorders have been met, since that was the purchase method Apple told us to use.