I suspect that's pretty accurate. I got my iPhone 6 delivered and, if I remember correctly, I got the shipping notice on Wednesday (I'm in Chicago).
I think some of the confusion comes from the shipping dates, themselves. When I ordered my iPhone, the shipping date was a firm date--release day--not a sort of open ended April 24-May 8. That's where the concern is coming from, I believe.
To add to the confusion, some watches that are showing updates are for shipping far in the future. Confusing, to people who were in the first wave of purchasers (2:02am CST) and received the earliest fulfillment dates.
I can see why Apple didn't want to do the typical in-store first-day sales, with so many SKUs, but this has been pretty confusing.