Lost password/ backup
IF you erase and backup an iPad will your game progress be the same? The clash of clans base is not the original base will it be overrided?
iPad, iOS 6.0.2
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In order to restore data, you would have to backup prior to erasing the device. If you plan on erasing and then backing up, that does not good. You have to backup first.
If you forgot your passcode and you need to restore and do not have backup, you will lose all of your data. The only exception to this would be games that save the user data on their own servers. I don't know for sure, but I don't think that Clash of Clans is one of those games. You would be best served by contacting their support to know for sure.