Thank you for the pointer! My setuperr.log is also empty, but setup act.log contains several "AudMig: Skipping driver InfPath recovery because it was already run before." and "AudMig: Applying saved Audio settings" lines, and these:
MigHost started with command line: {9031059F-790A-4208-AA92-A8F1EC0E0897} /InitDoneEvent:MigHost.{9031059F-790A-4208-AA92-A8F1EC0E0897}.Event /ParentPID:4384
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::Init: Successfully initialized surrogate.
MigHost: Initialized successfully with CLSID[{9031059F-790A-4208-AA92-A8F1EC0E0897}] and LogDir=[]
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::LoadDllServer in progress: BinaryPath=[C:\$WINDOWS.~BT\Sources\ReplacementManifests\Microsoft-Windows-RasS erver-MigPlugin\RasMigPlugin.dll], CLSID=[{D26AA4A5-92AD-48DB-8D59-95EF0DCE6939}], ApartmentThreadingModel=[0].
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::COMGenericThreadingHostThreadProc: ThreadID=[0x1038], Server=[C:\$WINDOWS.~BT\Sources\ReplacementManifests\Microsoft-Windows-RasServe r-MigPlugin\RasMigPlugin.dll], CLSID=[{D26AA4A5-92AD-48DB-8D59-95EF0DCE6939}], ApartmentThreadingModel=[0]
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::LoadAndRegisterServerInThreadContext: Loaded server(C:\$WINDOWS.~BT\Sources\ReplacementManifests\Microsoft-Windows-RasServer -MigPlugin\RasMigPlugin.dll)
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::LoadAndRegisterServerInThreadContext: Successfully loaded and registered server(C:\$WINDOWS.~BT\Sources\ReplacementManifests\Microsoft-Windows-RasServer -MigPlugin\RasMigPlugin.dll)
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::COMGenericThreadingHostThreadProc: LoadAndRegisterServerInThreadContext() succeeded.
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::LoadDllServer finished: Result=[0x0].
MigHost: CMigPluginSurrogate::COMGenericThreadingHostThreadProc: Exiting ThreadID=[0x1038].
MigHost: Exiting process.
I don't see anything unusual here, so I'll try again and pay closer attention to what happens. Also, I'll google those CLSIDs, as I see other people who see them during failed installation attempts.