allan299 wrote:
I have read on this message board, if i understood it correctly, that one should have an external drive that is 2-3 times the size of the storage capacity of the computer.
It's not quite that straightforward. The source volume's capacity is not the defining factor.
A TM backup device requires enough capacity to store one complete backup of the source volume's contents, plus enough to back up any additional files added or modified since that backup, plus an amount of "overhead" that is a not easily calculated with any degree of precision. For example if your source volume contains 450 GB of data, the 500 GB Time Machine backup device you were contemplating might be minimally adequate—for one backup. If a significant percentage of that 450 GB were to change, for example following a major macOS upgrade, it would be inadequate since TM will not delete that one backup until the next one is complete.
The oft-cited "rule of thumb" you quoted is imprecise. What is it anyway, two, or three times the source volume's contents? Why two? Why three? How about two and a half? Is any less than two ok, or should there be more than three? Four or five times the source volume? To answer my own question, if you purchase a 4 TB backup device you'll be fine. Should you purchase a 6 TB backup drive? Sure, why not.
The simple reason for that oft-cited "rule of thumb" is that it is an answer that will not result in complaints when the user finds out whatever he bought wasn't big enough.
Once in a while you can find 6 TB external hard disk drives for less than $100. Buy one. Or three. You won't come back here telling me I was wrong.