It turns out to be complicated, or simple, depending. I'm going to post here rather than the other post since I can't speak for what is going on for the other user.
On a hunch, I checked out the man page for tmutil, and determined these steps would work to get a list of changed files:
- Log in to an administrative account on the Mac
- If the TimeMachine drive isn't mounted, mount it.
- Open terminal
- cd to the Desktop folder
- Type the command
sudo tmutil compare > compare.txt
6. Press Enter
7. When prompted, type the admin password
8. Wait until done.
At that point, I had a list of all the changed files, over 600,000 of them. Only about 11,000 were in one of other of the computer's User folders.
Turns out that most of the files are in the applications folder, for instance:
/Applications/Logic Pro X.app/Contents/Resources/AppleLoopsIndex/Soulection/Hidden Treasure Acoustic Piano.loopdata
/Applications/Logic Pro X.app/Contents/Resources/AppleLoopsIndex/Soulection/Heart Felt Wah Guitar.loopdata
/Applications/Logic Pro X.app/Contents/Resources/Project Templates/Tutorials/01 Live Loops Grid.logicx/Contents/Resources/en.lproj/Art/06_RecordButton.png
I looked at those files and they all had a modified date of Dec. 7, 2022. Logic Pro was updated Dec. 14. In fact, a huge number of file changes appeared to involve just the modified time. (That said, I don't know enough about tmutil compare to know whether it actually does a byte-for-byte comparison of the file contents.)
Still doesn't explain why in the span of one week Users had 10K+ file changes, but does explain why there's a huge number of files in general. Actually, Users could probably be explained just by all the cache that builds up surfing the web for a week. So it might be good to clear browser caches before doing a backup.
Anyway, it doesn't look suspicious (although it doesn't guarantee something suspicious isn't also going on).