I regularly get things stuck while moving with Exchange and have had this problem for a number of OS versions - it's not new to Ventura. I also have a fairly large amount of mail, 40G of which is on Exchange.
The bad news is there's not a great fix. I've tried all the restart in safe mode, delete the cache files, etc. "try this" options I've found, and very few things I found helped.
From everything I've worked out dealing with this for the last few years, if it's not what Sparks0829 posted above about a bad file or character then it means your directories are out of sync and Apple Mail and Exchange don't get back in sync gracefully. As you suggested, this is why you can't see the threads - they are in "move limbo" and haven't actually moved into those folders on the Exchange side and so don't show up in searches or the folders you think they are in (If you look via OWA or a different app, you'll find them all still in your inbox on Exchange). My main system is still on Monterey, but this hasn't changed in years, so I'm pretty sure it's accurate for Ventura as well.
If I catch it while I still know what email has moved, I can rebuild all the mailboxes concerned (include inbox, trash, junk, sent, and any mailbox you've tried to move things to by hand or with rules). Once it's done rebuilding them all, if you got the offending stuck mail, it's in sync again and good for a while. Depending on your uplink speed and the rate limiting on the Exchange server this can take a few hours to a few days.
Your inbox will fill back up with the things Apple Mail tried to move but Exchange thinks hasn't really moved because they are out of Sync, and you get to file all of them again.
The second way I've fixed this is to close Apple mail and use Outlook (I use web) or iPad/iPhone to manually move or delete the stuck messages. Again this only works if you can figure out which message(s) are stuck, or do all of them back to the last time it worked. If you get the one that stopped things up, next time you launch Apple Mail it should be able to make progress - after it thinks for (quite) a while - and you'll get a number of those "I couldn't move the file" dialogs" for the things it was stuck on that you moved out from under it.
The third way, and the only one that works 100% of the time, is delete the Exchange account, let everything erase out of the account, reboot, then add it back. It's going to be a pain with 75G of mail (it is for 40G) but if you're at 2400 messages not moved, you might need to. This is critical or you'll be doing it all again: don't file any email using Apple Mail until it is back in sync (which for me is from 1-2 days at work with a 1G connection to nearly a week from home). You can use iPad or OWA, etc. to deal with your inbox, but not MacOS Mail until all the folders are downloaded and re-synced or you risk something else getting stuck.
Good luck, and I hope this helps!
-debbie