And then I'll be back here in couple of years when the issue recurs. :)
And, it likely will if the backup disk is full.
Yes, Time Machine is supposed to delete older backups to make room for newer backups. This usually works OK.....IF.....the new backups are small "incremental" type backups.
BUT......if the new backup is larger than normal, which could occur after new data...pictures, video, music, etc is added to the Mac, or an operating system update was just performed......THEN....Time Machine cannot delete enough of the old backups to make room for the new larger than normal backup.
Of course.....Apple does not mention details like this in their Time Machine documentation.
Bottom line.....if you want to maintain a complete history of backups......add a new backup disk when the current backup disk is close to being full.