MacBook Air upgrade from Catalina 10.15.7 to Big Sur 11.7.10 fails

I have a MacBook Air (13-inch, Mid 2013) - Model A1466 - MacBookAir6,2 - Core i7 with 8GB RAM and 500GB storage.

It was running Big Sur just fine towards the end of 2023. I hadn’t used the laptop much since then.  Tried to power it on again this week and it was refusing to boot.  Just displaying the Apple logo on boot.

Tried a few diagnostic tests via the boot rescue but no luck. Decided to re-install it.

I can do a fresh install of MacOS Catalina 10.15.7 just fine off USB. Boots and applies all latest updates no problem.

However, when I attempt the offered update to Big Sur 11.7.10, the install process always results in the “crossed out circle” error pointing to “support.apple.com/mac/startup”.

I can hold the option key while booting and am presented with “macOS Installer” and “Macintosh HD” as options. Selecting the first one results in the “crossed out circle” error again.  Selecting “Macintosh HD” boots me back into my original Catalina installation.

I’ve tried installing from USB with Big Sur, but this results in the same problem, although without the option to boot into “Macintosh HD” as it’s erased the drive.

Anything else I can try? What am I missing? I can’t see anything specific about Big Sur not working on this MacBook Air model, and it was working fine with Big Sur back in 2023!