New iPhone 14 Pro, update to iOS 18 stalled during setup and transfer from old phone

I'm setting up a new (bought refurbished from official refurbished Apple Store) iPhone 14 Pro, and initiated the setup to transfer data from my iPhone 13 mini, including the setting up the eSIM. At some point, I was prompted to update to iOS 18. It downloaded and completed the progress bar, but now it's stuck on the Software Update screen, with just the iOS 18 description, a Learn More bar that I can't tap, and a grey button bar with a spinning loading wheel. It responds to lock, swipe up to unlock, and takes my passcode, but otherwise I cannot interact with it at all. My old iPhone 13 mini has a waiting for software update screen, instructing to keep it near the new phone while information transfers.

It's been like this for 2+ hours. What do I do? It doesn't look like it's doing anything. My wifi is on and connected to the internet