I've just experienced the same problem. Backups have completed successfully on my time capsule for over a year (and all of this morning), and now it tells me that 'The identity of the backup disk has changed since the previous backup'. The machine was idling (i.e. no activity by user, or on network by others).
I'm in the process of wiping the Time Capsule disk and starting over (got impatient, and don't need old stuff), but I did manage to dig deeper into the log file (I've replaced AFP mount path with {
*}, my username with [user], and my Mac HD drive name with <
*>).
The regular hourly backup was interrupted by a FSEvents process. Here's the full log at the time:
31/12/10 8:19:14 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Starting standard backup
31/12/10 8:19:14 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Attempting to mount network destination using URL: afp://{
*}
31/12/10 8:19:23 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Mounted network destination using URL: afp://{
*}
31/12/10 8:19:23 AM kernel AFP_VFS afpfs_mount: /Volumes/Time Capsule, pid 33678
31/12/10 8:19:25 AM hdiejectd[33687] running
31/12/10 8:19:26 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] QUICKCHECK ONLY; FILESYSTEM CLEAN
31/12/10 8:19:29 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Disk image /Volumes/Time Capsule/[user]_0017f2c6e7e3.sparsebundle mounted at: /Volumes/Backup of [user]
31/12/10 8:19:29 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Backing up to: /Volumes/Backup of [user]/Backups.backupdb
31/12/10 8:20:09 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] No pre-backup thinning needed: 253.9 MB requested (including padding), 7.91 GB available
31/12/10 8:20:23 AM com.apple.launchd[1] (com.apple.netauth.sysagent[33678]) Exited with exit code: 255
31/12/10 8:22:42 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Copied 1552 files (67.2 MB) from volume <
*>.
31/12/10 8:22:44 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] No pre-backup thinning needed: 173.2 MB requested (including padding), 7.91 GB available
31/12/10 8:22:44 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Waiting for index to be ready (100)
31/12/10 8:23:16 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Copied 901 files (104 bytes) from volume <
*>.
31/12/10 8:23:32 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Starting post-backup thinning
31/12/10 8:24:25 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Deleted backup /Volumes/Backup of [user]/Backups.backupdb/[user]/2010-12-30-072525: 7.91 GB now available
31/12/10 8:24:25 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Post-back up thinning complete: 1 expired backups removed
31/12/10 8:24:25 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Backup completed successfully.
31/12/10 8:24:31 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Ejected Time Machine disk image.
31/12/10 8:24:32 AM com.apple.backupd[33677] Ejected Time Machine network volume.
31/12/10 8:24:32 AM kernel AFP_VFS afpfs_unmount: /Volumes/Time Capsule, flags 0, pid 33714
31/12/10 8:24:32 AM kernel ASP_TCP CancelOneRequest: cancelling slot 16 error 89 reqID 39367 flags 0x9 afpCmd 0xF0000002 so 0xc3217f8
31/12/10 8:24:41 AM hdiejectd[33687] quitCheck: calling exit(0)
31/12/10 9:19:15 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Starting standard backup
31/12/10 9:19:15 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Attempting to mount network destination using URL: afp://{
*}
31/12/10 9:19:23 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Mounted network destination using URL: afp://{
*}
31/12/10 9:19:24 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Creating disk image /Volumes/Time Capsule/[user].sparsebundle
31/12/10 9:19:24 AM kernel AFP_VFS afpfs_mount: /Volumes/Time Capsule, pid 33830
31/12/10 9:19:25 AM hdiejectd[33836] running
31/12/10 9:19:35 AM hdiejectd[33836] quitCheck: calling exit(0)
31/12/10 9:20:23 AM com.apple.launchd[1] (com.apple.netauth.sysagent[33830]) Exited with exit code: 255
31/12/10 9:20:44 AM kernel hfs: Initializing the journal (joffset 0xe81000 sz 0x2800000)...
31/12/10 9:20:48 AM hdiejectd[33850] running
31/12/10 9:20:49 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] QUICKCHECK ONLY; FILESYSTEM CLEAN
31/12/10 9:20:51 AM fseventsd[43] could not open <</Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.fseventsd/fseventsd-uuid>> (No such file or directory)
31/12/10 9:20:51 AM fseventsd[43] log dir: /Volumes/Time Machine Backups/.fseventsd getting new uuid: 70444929-F67B-428F-B640-BFA104F39641
31/12/10 9:20:52 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Disk image /Volumes/Time Capsule/[user].sparsebundle mounted at: /Volumes/Time Machine Backups
31/12/10 9:20:53 AM UserNotificationCenter[33862] __CFServiceControllerBeginPBSLoadForLocalizations timed out while talking to pbs
31/12/10 9:35:27 AM com.apple.launchd.peruser.501[216] (com.apple.syncservices.SyncServer) Throttling respawn: Will start in 6 seconds
31/12/10 10:00:21 AM loginwindow[565] in pam
smauthenticate(): Failed to determine Kerberos principal name.
31/12/10 10:02:01 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] User continued after being warned of changed destination volume UUID
31/12/10 10:02:01 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Backing up to: /Volumes/Time Machine Backups/Backups.backupdb
31/12/10 10:02:01 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Ownership is disabled on the backup destination volume. Enabling.
31/12/10 10:02:07 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Backup content size: 141.9 GB excluded items size: 30.7 GB for volume aargh
31/12/10 10:02:07 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Compacting storage: 133.41 GB requested (including padding), 7.48 GB available before compacting
31/12/10 10:02:07 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Stopping backup.
31/12/10 10:02:08 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Backup canceled.
31/12/10 10:02:09 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Ejected Time Machine disk image.
31/12/10 10:02:09 AM com.apple.backupd[33829] Compacting backup disk image to recover free space
31/12/10 10:02:19 AM hdiejectd[33850] quitCheck: calling exit(0)
Okay, so it wasn't able to find space to backup, and all subsequent backups were unable to find free space, so aborted. I had nothing of value on the Time Capsule, so began again after removing my own sparse bundles.
Would love to know what went wrong, so that next time I don't have to wipe and start afresh.