Am having the exact same problem. Had the same behaviour with several updates before which I ended up installing manually. Now I'm trying to install the latest itunes update. install.log's last lines are:
May 5 08:18:25 mbp installd[65809]: PackageKit: ----- Begin install -----
May 5 08:18:25 mbp installd[65809]: PackageKit: request=PKInstallRequest <3 packages, destination=/>
May 5 08:18:25 mbp installd[65809]: PackageKit: packages=(\n "PKLeopardPackage <file://localhost/Library/Updates/zzzz041-0532/CoreFPDelta.pkg>",\n "PKLeopardPackage <file://localhost/Library/Updates/zzzz041-0532/iTunesXPatch.pkg>",\n "PKLeopardPackage <file://localhost/Library/Updates/zzzz041-0532/iTunesAccessDelta.pkg>"\n)
May 5 08:18:26 mbp installd[65809]: PackageKit: Extracting file://localhost/Library/Updates/zzzz041-0532/CoreFPDelta.pkg (destination=/var/folders/zz/zzzivhrRnAmviuee+++++++++++/Cleanup At Startup/PKInstallSandbox-tmp/Root, uid=0)
May 5 08:18:28 mbp installd[65809]: PackageKit: Extracting file://localhost/Library/Updates/zzzz041-0532/iTunesXPatch.pkg (destination=/var/folders/zz/zzzivhrRnAmviuee+++++++++++/Cleanup At Startup/PKInstallSandbox-tmp/Root, uid=0)
May 5 08:18:29 mbp installd[65809]: PackageKit: Patching Applications/iTunes.app/Contents/Resources/iTunesHelper.app/Contents/version.pl ist
However that file is still untouched since march:
mbp:~ tbecker$ ls -latr /Applications/iTunes.app/Contents/Resources/iTunesHelper.app/Contents/version.p list
-rw-rw-r-- 1 root admin 452 7 Mar 23:40 /Applications/iTunes.app/Contents/Resources/iTunesHelper.app/Contents/version.p list
The installer is stuck at "Writing files..."
Tried repairing disk permissions and all other suggestions. Nothing helped.