Found it --- in the Console you can see which applications are trying to launch:
7/28/12 10:04:05.838 AM Download Java Components[11402]: Java Install cancelled
7/28/12 10:04:09.080 AM com.apple.launchd.peruser.501[184]: (com.crashplan.engine[11490]) Exited with code: 1
7/28/12 10:04:09.080 AM com.apple.launchd.peruser.501[184]: (com.crashplan.engine) Throttling respawn: Will start in 10 seconds
7/28/12 10:04:09.246 AM com.apple.launchd.peruser.501[184]: (com.mlbam.nexdef[11493]) Exited with code: 97
7/28/12 10:04:09.246 AM com.apple.launchd.peruser.501[184]: (com.mlbam.nexdef) Throttling respawn: Will start in 10 seconds
So the likely candidates are CrashPlan -- yep, I do remember that's a Java app -- and MLB.com's NexDef plugin, which ***** anyway and can be removed. :-)