I got it working. Here's what I did
1) I uninstalled iTunes, Apple Application Support, and Apple Mobile Device Support
2) went to \roaming\Apple Computer\ and renamed the SyncServices folder
3) in \roaming\Apple Computer\Preferences\ I renamed OutlookSyncClient.exe.plist
4) I rebooted and started Apple Software update. It wanted into update QuickTime and Install iTunes. I let it.
5) without a reboot, i connected my iPhone. iTunes started and did it's usual crap and synced fine but the Info sheet was unchcecked.
6) I checked the info sheet and hit "apply". contacts synced fine. got totally stuck on calendar.
7) I stopped the sync, unchecked just the calendar to see if i could get it to do a "delete on phone" sync. still got stuck. i cancelled the sync.
8) i opened the newest log in here Roaming\Apple Computer\Logs and started reading. the complaint i found had to do with a malformed path value. which is interesting since this did not happen before this whole mess began.
9) i researched issues with my system having, you know, a really long path and found that it kind of did. i.e., over 2048 characters which some applications find irritating -- even if that is a pretty ridiculous thing. in other words, if windows is fine with it, why is any of the software (e.g. SyncServices) business how long the thing is and where does he get off taking leave to restrict it on his end? outrageous!
10) anyway, by hook and by crook, i substantially shorten my path environment variable with no loss of items in the path by substituting the short names for everything. i also removed zombie items. With all that I had a path of about 1800 characters -- surely he would be accepted into the kingdom of Apple?
11) rebooted
12) no luck, but a new error emerged. this one spoke of a failed response on a pipe. it looked like this: 029E5278 1476 (distnoted.exe) windows_msg - Error getting overlapped result for named pipe: 109
13) after some googling, i found that, somehow, there could be a .dll conflict between SyncServices and one of my programming editors, UltraEdit.
14) So, i ended up removing something like "C:\Program Files (x86)\IDM Computer Solutions\UltraEdit" from my user path (and system path if it was there).
15) rebooted -- btw, at this reboot, i allowed windows update to apply a service pack to Office 2010 64-bit so this might have "straightened out" anything amiss in the Outlook stuff -- hard to say for sure.
16) now it all works.
17) last thing. the iTunes i now have installed is 11.1.5.5 -- it's what the website gave me.
I put all this in here in the hope that it will be useful to some of you but I have my doubts about that. There are so many ways for iTunes syncing of Outlook on Windows to fail that i sort of feel like this stuff is pretty idiopathic. Although i will admit that i got a clue here and there from tangentially related issues of late. At this point, i had 2 successful syncs of my calendar this morning. i'm gonna leave it there and go to work. I'll post back here if it misbehaves more tonight. Thanks, all.