Miller, your research has me pretty worried. I've been watching the delivery date for my watch (ordered 5/3) go from July to, as of today, the week of 6/12, getting excited with each move. Now I'm not sure what to do.
I, like you, wanted a watch/tracker that would give me credit for "brisk" activity without having to go into workout mode, which the HR could trigger. Not anymore. Furthermore, the tests you did are just more proof that a person won't know what to believe in terms of calorie expenditures if they "forgot" to enter workout mode or didn't realize when they started the brisk activity that it would turn into something that could've been a workout.
For those of us looking to monitor our calorie intake and adjust it based on calories expended, this is problematic. I had been wearing a Garmin Vivoactive, which I like. It gets notifications (which I like), though not as elegantly as the Apple Watch. I need a HR monitor when I do a workout (Mio Link). Not really what I want, but ever since the Bodymedia Link started going on the fritz, I've been looking for something comparable. The Link worked.
Today, I wore my Fitbit Surge and my Jawbone Up3. The Fitbit measured 1000 calories more than the Garmin, and the Up3 was in the middle. I still don't think the Surge works for me at all (which is what led to the Vivoactive). The Up3 appears to have the technology to do what I want since it has the sensors that were in the Bodymedia Link. But I don't trust Jawbone to actually use them for anything other than resting HR while you sleep. They say they will "in the future", but their track record is not good. Right now, it's little more than a glorified Fitbit Flex. I tend to believe the Garmin.
So, I'm pretty confused. I'll give the Apple Watch a try and see what happens. I'm really looking forward to the test that someone else is going to do tomorrow. I was really looking forward to the slick integration the Apple Watch will give me along with a trustworthy fitness tracker, but I'm not sure now. Between Apple, Fitbit and Jawbone making changes to get things right, I have the most faith in Apple.
My excitement is really starting to wane as I read this thread. Fitbit and Jawbone are just as secretive about how they calculate stuff and what their trackers are actually doing as Apple seems to be right now. I hope Apple will fix it and/or come clean with what they're really doing.