An interesting and likely theory which may lack some additional considerations. Mac mini 2018. I just have upgraded from Big Sur to Monterey 12.6. Right after the first boot I could watch the Hard Disk drives to be disconnected and connected again for lets say 5 times. Then this behavior came to an end. Yes, the hard drives go into sleep but as I am using it mainly for backups and archiving this ist not a problem to me - just saying.
I also could observe while moving one file into another folder (both on the same ssd) that I saw the beachball spinning and it took 5 seconds for the small file to get moved. This does not happen all the time by now, but it was remarkably slow.
Of course the new MacOS is the main factor in the behavior as the disk drives did not have similar problems before Monterey.
And also it is a shame that such a degradation of the system is still not fixed completely 5 upgrades later.
So here my theory which does not interfere with yours: Apple made changes in the way the system is dealing with drives for whatever reason. Likely to get some performance improvements. To ovoid the Hard Disk problem from happening for the most users, I assume they installed a patch which monitors the hard drive behavior during the first boot and when there are problems detected there automatically will be a fix applied to the disk management.
This also would mean that they stick to their changes they have done. Ventura is coming and the long term plan does likely exclude any fall back solutions.
That means for me that I have lost any confidence in Monterey. I will downgrade to Big Sur before I risk my hard drives getting damaged and hopefully there will be no degradation in my system behavior when continuing using Big sur. It would not be the first time I could experience that when a new release is due to be installed, the bugs in my current system become more visible the longer I avoid an upgrade.
I do not know where Apple is heading to. They have created a fantastic operation system where there is no serious alternative for a power user who also enjoys the ergonomics of a fantastic UI. It's quite sad to see this happening with no reasonable hope to turn for the better.