It turns out that my problem was caused by Microsoft's OneDrive application. If there are folders on your computer that you are syncing to the Cloud using OneDrive, you have the option of saying "Free Disk Space" and have files be downloaded on-demand—only when you use them. This does indeed free disk-space. However, there is a bug: when Migration Assistant do the volume size accounting on your disk, they count the full size of files on the cloud. I believe this is due to the metadata/headers of the small place-holder files that OneDrive keeps on your computer for the on-demand files on the cloud. Interestingly, the Disk Utility and the "**" command do not make this mistake (ostensibly because they don't count size file-by-file or calculate actual file size on disk).
Anways, you have several solutions in this case. One is to unlink your old mac from OneDrive, migrate, and then re-link. Another is to unselect the large on-demand folders in OneDrive "Manage Storage" before migration and re-select afterwards.
I suspect this problem could be similarly caused by other cloud-storage apps from Google or Dropbox when you choose any kind of "download on demand" option.
I hope apple addresses this issue by altering their Migration Assistant settings.