Next backup size is always WAY lower than the actual. So I can't backup because I don't have enough iCloud space and it doesn't give me any other option to reduce the size.
This seems related to imessages for me. Even though I don't have imessages backed up at all, the pictures and videos in my text messages seem to enlarge the overall backup size way beyond what is calculated for 'next backup size'. For instance, right now, the current backup is 4.63GB and the next is 1.36GB, but when I try to backup, I don't have enough iCloud space (even though backing up should reduce the size by 3GB). This is because the calculation doesn't accurately account for the actual backup and turning off imessages doesn't actual prevent the phone from backing up media in imessages. This bug has been ongoing for years and seemingly will never get fixed.
iPhone 13