You cannot assign keyboard shortcuts to parent menu (Export To >) items that have children menu items. The following AppleScript, when used in an Automator Quick Action's Run AppleScript action will pop open the Pages export panel.
Requirements:
- System Settings > Privacy & Security
- Automation > Automator
- Enable Pages
- Enable System Events
- Automation > Pages
- Accessibility panel
- Enable Automator, and Pages
Once that is done, launch Automator choosing Quick Actions. Here is the Quick Action that tells an open Pages document to open the Export To panel:

With a blank workflow panel on the right-side of the Open Automator window, select Library > Utilities > Run AppleScript and drag/drop it into the larger workflow window. Select all of the content in that Run AppleScript window and remove it. Set the Workflow receives [ no input ] in [ Pages ] at the top of the action.
Now, copy/paste the following content into that Run AppleScript action window, click the hammer icon, and with an open Pages document, click the Automator Run button. If you have set up the bulleted items above beforehand, you should not receive any error dialog from Automator and the Export panel on Pages will open.
# GUI script to tell Pages to open its Export To panel
# Automator will need to be enabled in System Settings > Accessibility panel
# keyboard shortcut can be assigned in System Settings > Keyboard > Keyboard Shortcuts > Services
use scripting additions
on run {input, parameters}
tell application "Pages"
activate
tell application "System Events"
tell process "Pages"
set frontmost to true
tell menu item 1 of menu "Export To" of menu item "Export To" of menu "File" of menu bar item "File" of menu bar 1
perform action "AXPress"
end tell
end tell
end tell
end tell
return input
end run
If the action ran as expected with no errors, you can save the Quick Action with some meaningful name (e.g. Open Pages Export Panel) and quit Automator.
In System Settings > Keyboard > Keyboard Shortcuts > Services > General, you should see this new Quick Action entry. If not enabled, click that, and you can enter your keyboard shortcut in the None field. (I used control+command+E which will echo as ^⌘E and then you press return to set the shortcut. You may need to invoke the action manually once from the Pages > Services > General > Open Pages Export Panel, before the keyboard shortcut will work afterward.
Tested: Pages 13 on macOS 13.4.
Caveat: As with any GUI scripting solution, changes made by Apple in future Pages releases may break the above code.