Okay it seems I was right.
After I originaly posted here I unplugged my phone and let it drain to about 30% before charging it back up to full. I went home and my 5 year old son and I played on it, including an pretty memory intensive human anatomy app for kids -- sometimges plugged in, sometimes not. Used it A LOT last night, playing with settings, cheking out the new auto update feature, notifications, etc. I didn't end up turning any of the new features off in settings, and even enabled a few new features. Then, as usual, I plugged it in when I went to bed and let it run a clock/alarm program (Rise) all night.
This morning I drove to work (about 20 minutes) with turn-by-turn navigation running and a podcast playing in the background -- not plugged in to power. When I got to work the battery showed 98%. Leaving the phone unplugged, I have been playing that video podast for half an hour -- with a pause for a phone call set up by Siri -- and battery is currently showing 93%.
I think it's going to be okay. Everybody breathe.