I can attest that I tried everything and tried to debug this as best as I could.
From what I've seen I think it's either a Keychain issue or a enrollment validation problem from apple that is beyond my understanding. I'm inclining to think it's the Keychain.
Why do I say about enrollment? Because I had an apple watch series 2 that worked flawlessly with unlocking all my Macs from day 1. Unfortunately I had some problems with it, part of them from my fault, part from the device itself, and got it replaced under warranty. Although when I took the watch to the service, they had me to unpair it from the iPhone and also remove it from my appleid account, after replacing the watch (new device ID) and also after pairing it to my iPhone, I had for a while two watches listed under security preferences at the unlock section. I could not get any of them to unlock my MBP.
So I arrived to this thread and tried EVERY solution here. I even deleted, YES deleted my keychain from my Mac, but to no avail. Today I changed passwords from both my Mac and my Keychain (matching passwords) as some members suggested regarding the ASCII solution. Although my old passwords were ASCII compliant because they had usual letters and numbers and a character equal "=", which is ASCII compliant also, I decided to drop the "=" from my login password and my keychain password and miraculously it worked. Weird! Maybe it has to do with they keychain being synced across the devices and implicitly the MBP password.
Home I have an iMac that has the same old MBP password with the "=" sign in the password. I'll test home if the iMac works and get back later with an update.
Hopefully my insight helps others too.